Agentic Scenarios Every Marketer Must Prepare For

BCG's scenario planning framework for agentic marketing identifies four plausible futures and argues that two imperatives will determine whether brands win or lose across all four: discoverability and desirability.

What are BCG's four scenarios for agentic marketing?

BCG's scenario planning framework identifies four plausible futures for marketing in the agentic era. First, the open agentic bazaar - a fragmented landscape where multiple AI agents compete for consumer delegation, and brands must be discoverable across all of them. Second, brand resurgence through data ecosystems - where first-party data becomes the competitive moat and brands that own customer relationships can deploy superior agents.

Third, the super-app embrace - where a dominant platform (Amazon, Google, or Apple) captures the agent layer and brands must integrate with that platform's ecosystem. Fourth, the creator-led authenticity revival - where human authenticity becomes the premium signal in a world of AI-mediated commerce, and creator partnerships replace traditional advertising.

What are the two imperatives that work across all scenarios?

BCG argues that two imperatives will determine whether brands win or lose across all four scenarios. Discoverability is the ability to be found by the agents that mediate discovery. Desirability is the power to be wanted by the consumers those agents serve.

This is the AXD dual-layer thesis expressed in marketing language. The machine-readable layer (agent discoverability) and the human trust layer (brand desirability) must be designed simultaneously. A brand that is discoverable by agents but not desirable to consumers will generate transactions but not loyalty. A brand that is desirable to consumers but not discoverable by agents will lose market share as agent-mediated commerce grows.

Why must retailers choose between destinations and evaluators?

BCG's observation that retailers must choose between becoming destinations or evaluators is structurally significant. A destination retailer invests in the direct shopping experience - making its site, app, and physical stores so compelling that consumers choose to visit rather than delegate to an agent. An evaluator retailer invests in agent-readiness - making its products, prices, and policies machine-readable so agents can evaluate and recommend them.

Pursuing both simultaneously is structurally difficult because the investments compete. Destination investment prioritises human experience design. Evaluator investment prioritises machine-readable infrastructure. The AXD Institute maps this as the platform positioning dilemma in agentic commerce.